Variability in Assaultive, Unintentional, and Self-Gunshot Injury in U.S. States and State Policy Opportunities for Prevention
This study will use a “hot-spotting” model to explore how state and county firearm mortality rates have changed over time and place, relative to implementation or repeal of state firearm policies.
Note: This project was funded during Dr. Douglas Weibe’s tenure at University of Pennsylvania.
The purpose of this study is to identify U.S. counties that are positive and negative outliers in changes in firearm mortality rates over time, then characterize policy and non-policy differences between these outliers using the following approaches:
- Benchmark U.S. counties by change in observed-to-expected firearm mortality rates over time (1999-2002 and 2015-2018).
- Use death certificate data and data on county characteristics, population, and trauma center access.
- Estimate the association between enactment or repeal of state firearm policies on changes in observed-to-expected state and county firearm mortality rates over time.
- Identify counties that had higher or lower than expected changes in firearm mortality rates over time relative to those of other counties in the same state, as a way to spot differences in implementation or in other approaches to reducing firearm injuries.
This project is designed to identify policies that may reduce or increase the risk of firearm mortality, in order to develop novel insights on how to prevent firearm injury deaths.