Reports characterizing recent increases in firearm-related deaths underestimate the magnitude of the issue, and existing theories “fall short” in explaining the surge, according to a new study led by the University of Michigan.
The study, published recently in Epidemiology, examined weekly mortality figures in the U.S. and found firearm homicides increased nationally by 54% in a single year from October 2019 to October 2020.
The findings show that previous theories about reasons behind the increase, such as factors related to the COVID-19 pandemic or unrest following the death of George Floyd, cannot explain why firearm homicides began to rise in late 2019, according to the study’s authors. Researchers noted, for example, that nearly 28% of the overall increase had already occurred by the time COVID-19 had been declared a national emergency.
Led by researchers at U-M’s Institute for Firearm Injury Prevention in partnership with RAND, the study determined that the unprecedented increase in firearm homicides, which started in late 2019, while non-firearm homicide rates remained stable.
“This study shows that the magnitude of recent increases in firearm homicide have been understated due to previously relying on crude annual or monthly data,” said Michelle Degli Esposti, former research assistant professor at the Institute for Firearm Injury Prevention.
“By analyzing more detailed weekly data, we were able to examine how firearm homicide evolved over this time period relative to key events that have been proposed as inciting incidents. In doing so, we found that late-2019 to late-2020 was an even deadlier year than previous reports suggest. The timing of the increase also points toward causes that pre-date the COVID-19 pandemic, and which similarly affect all peoples and places.”
The research shows different sociodemographic and geographic groups experienced relatively consistent increases in firearm homicide, though there was variation noted by race, ethnicity, and age group.
Populations that saw more elevated increases include non-Hispanic Black persons (57%) and Hispanic persons (52%). People under the age of 18 saw the largest increase during this time period, at 71%, which is almost three times higher than that for those aged 55 years and older.
Researchers also noted that the increases in firearm homicide were fairly uniform across the United States, with little variation by different geographic groups, including similar increases in states across the political spectrum.
The authors said that while the study’s findings do not identify what caused the historic surge in firearm homicide, it is “critical” to identify the factors that sparked the upward trend at the end of 2019.
“The spike in firearm homicides during late-2019 to late-2020 was a historical outlier that affected all geographic and sociodemographic groups, and far surpassed other relative increases seen over the prior 45 years,” said Rosanna Smart, coauthor of the study and a senior economist at RAND, a nonprofit research organization. “With recent data indicating sharp declines in homicide over the past two years, it will be important to assess whether these declines are widespread or whether certain groups remain at significantly elevated risk.”